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Prediction for CME (2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-29T06:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36050/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the southeast in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo directed towards the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery. The source is likely related to an eruption and subsequent M2.0 flare from from Active Region 13939 (S17E30) starting around 2024-12-29T04:40Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. A subsequent dimming is observed around the eruption site in GOES SUVI 195 imagery at this time as well.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-12-31T15:44Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-31T10:28Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 7.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/36117/1
Model Inputs:
2024-12-29T01:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=-18.0, Speed=881.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2024-12-29T04:56Z
2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=860.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-12-29T10:14Z
2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=917.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2024-12-29T21:46Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-12-31T10:28Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =16.5 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.0
(kp)90=7
(kp)180=8

Other Location(s) Impact:
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-01T08:56Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T16:59Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-02T08:52Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T10:12Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-01T00:31Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T04:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241229_045700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 23.00 hour(s)
Difference: 5.27 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2024-12-30T16:44Z

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